* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 51 43 37 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 58 51 43 37 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 59 54 49 45 38 35 35 37 40 43 46 50 V (KT) G06R 53 43 45 44 40 36 30 26 24 24 27 37 49 SHEAR (KT) 36 34 28 23 23 18 16 20 21 17 13 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 1 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 3 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 20 22 37 42 46 27 13 346 335 322 298 357 5 SST (C) 12.5 12.1 13.7 15.1 15.0 14.6 14.4 14.1 13.1 11.6 10.7 10.4 9.0 POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 71 72 72 72 71 70 69 66 64 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 67 67 68 69 69 69 68 67 66 64 62 64 65 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -50.4 -49.2 -47.9 -48.4 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 47 51 52 51 50 52 56 63 69 75 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 44 39 36 33 31 26 22 21 20 20 23 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 108 127 141 147 172 195 173 158 179 168 153 98 241 200 MB DIV 33 62 52 19 26 19 32 40 58 53 20 28 47 LAND (KM) 141 344 572 825 1059 1490 994 714 851 1126 1355 1500 1252 LAT (DEG N) 48.1 49.3 50.0 50.7 51.0 51.0 52.3 55.0 58.6 61.0 61.2 61.9 60.9 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 48.3 45.3 42.0 38.7 31.7 24.8 20.8 20.8 24.7 28.8 32.5 39.7 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 21 22 21 22 20 18 17 13 8 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -41. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -18. -17. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -22. -28. -39. -47. -52. -57. -59. -63. -69. -79.