* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 57 72 86 98 105 110 115 114 114 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 57 72 86 98 105 110 115 114 114 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 46 54 64 79 88 92 94 95 94 V (KT) G07R 32 33 38 43 45 48 52 53 53 59 59 52 55 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 21 15 3 8 6 2 4 8 6 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 4 8 1 6 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 224 214 208 203 103 74 39 112 129 134 14 81 52 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 136 131 130 135 134 130 125 128 131 133 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 148 136 132 131 134 129 122 115 118 117 119 115 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 57 58 57 53 52 49 50 53 54 58 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 26 28 29 31 34 35 37 38 38 41 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 143 140 143 140 132 113 88 54 52 41 68 33 47 200 MB DIV 73 37 62 96 44 71 78 58 54 12 113 23 29 LAND (KM) 1599 1841 1840 1896 1826 1657 1647 1720 1799 1823 1839 1930 1894 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.8 19.5 21.1 23.0 25.2 27.5 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 32.2 34.5 36.1 37.2 38.8 42.3 44.8 46.7 48.0 48.8 49.5 49.7 48.7 STM SPEED (KT) 23 19 14 16 18 16 13 12 10 12 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 37. 51. 63. 70. 75. 80. 79. 79.