* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 34 31 29 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 34 31 29 26 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 36 33 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 40 37 34 32 29 26 31 35 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 25 20 20 19 20 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 0 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 40 28 23 12 344 340 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.6 13.3 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 74 74 73 73 72 68 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 70 70 69 68 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -50.2 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 45 48 52 57 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 23 21 20 18 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 190 203 204 181 160 120 141 180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 25 14 35 30 41 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1050 1292 1489 1215 948 569 790 929 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.3 50.1 50.1 50.5 51.6 54.0 57.9 60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.7 35.2 31.3 27.6 24.1 18.7 20.5 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 24 24 22 21 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 78/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -26. -32. -41. -47.