* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 55 65 74 83 91 93 98 100 103 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 55 65 74 83 91 93 98 100 103 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 45 48 54 61 69 74 77 79 83 86 V (KT) G00R 32 31 33 37 40 42 47 53 57 61 55 58 57 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 3 6 9 6 14 4 16 5 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 -1 -1 6 2 12 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 243 208 205 136 119 121 112 99 109 73 79 330 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 130 130 130 128 128 126 127 128 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 123 122 120 114 116 112 114 111 117 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 56 57 55 51 53 53 52 52 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 24 26 26 27 29 32 35 37 37 39 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 134 133 123 111 102 77 60 46 45 30 48 46 74 200 MB DIV 56 50 51 62 82 36 57 69 102 -21 58 48 53 LAND (KM) 1831 1779 1768 1791 1803 1827 1855 1885 1981 2037 1992 1932 1924 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.4 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.1 25.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.3 40.5 41.2 41.8 43.3 44.3 45.3 45.8 46.6 47.5 48.6 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 10 10 9 5 7 6 9 5 9 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 34. 43. 51. 53. 58. 60. 63.