* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LANE EP132006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 56 60 63 68 68 62 48 41 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 50 52 56 60 63 68 66 60 42 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 56 55 56 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 34 28 25 28 30 30 31 29 23 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 5 3 3 5 8 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 4 2 0 0 -7 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 303 10 49 309 37 31 92 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.2 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 161 158 157 159 162 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 14 11 12 13 10 11 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 75 73 67 60 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 13 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 -8 -6 10 15 45 40 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 88 83 106 132 68 65 42 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 142 132 171 239 252 75 38 87 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.3 21.1 22.6 24.3 25.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.2 106.0 107.1 108.0 108.5 109.2 109.8 109.8 108.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 10 9 9 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 18. 18. 12. -2. -9. -11. -12. -12.