* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 34 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 34 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 36 33 31 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 41 38 34 31 28 26 32 37 34 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 24 20 20 19 21 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 2 0 7 2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 40 26 23 11 345 341 324 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.0 15.9 15.6 15.1 15.1 14.5 13.3 12.6 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 74 74 73 72 72 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 70 69 69 68 65 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -49.7 -48.1 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 44 46 50 53 57 61 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 26 23 21 20 18 20 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 190 196 196 174 154 112 157 203 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 27 20 34 29 37 51 54 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1049 1291 1506 1242 991 627 890 1030 1111 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.2 50.0 50.0 50.5 51.5 54.1 57.5 59.7 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.7 35.2 31.6 28.0 24.7 19.6 22.7 23.3 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 23 23 23 22 21 15 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 78/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -32. -41. -47.