* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 83 76 70 62 60 56 52 46 39 33 28 V (KT) LAND 100 92 83 76 70 62 60 56 52 46 39 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 100 92 85 78 74 67 66 68 69 65 56 47 42 V (KT) G05R 40 34 32 25 25 27 30 30 30 40 38 33 31 SHEAR (KT) 24 27 22 15 13 9 4 4 12 25 33 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -11 -7 -2 -4 -2 -6 0 0 6 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 65 75 92 98 99 132 145 95 69 75 86 96 114 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.2 23.1 22.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 115 114 114 114 114 113 111 104 96 93 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 94 94 93 94 95 96 97 98 93 86 83 82 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.7 -55.8 -57.0 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 44 43 41 42 42 47 54 57 51 45 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 15 14 14 13 13 11 11 14 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -58 -63 -84 -86 -87 -60 -33 -37 -72 -99 -98 -63 200 MB DIV 13 -19 -13 6 -14 -27 -16 24 35 21 4 6 -23 LAND (KM) 1591 1603 1571 1561 1563 1543 1478 1262 1060 1074 1384 1782 1613 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.7 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.6 33.4 35.4 37.7 39.8 40.7 40.6 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 54.7 54.7 54.7 54.2 53.7 52.6 51.5 48.7 43.7 38.0 32.6 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 3 5 8 13 19 24 21 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 49/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -16. -25. -33. -42. -49. -54. -57. -59. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -10. -9. -4. 2. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -24. -30. -38. -40. -44. -48. -54. -61. -67. -72.