* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LANE EP132006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 63 68 71 69 66 62 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 63 68 71 69 66 62 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 58 58 60 62 64 65 67 70 75 V (KT) G06R 37 26 27 26 30 31 35 31 28 25 21 21 23 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 7 11 8 6 11 5 5 9 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 5 1 2 4 6 -2 2 -7 -5 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 269 242 173 163 210 220 157 132 127 137 349 350 327 SST (C) 27.6 25.9 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 28.7 29.9 29.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 121 158 159 157 157 159 160 160 146 160 160 149 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 17 13 12 13 14 12 13 8 11 9 12 10 14 700-500 MB RH 80 80 81 78 79 78 72 61 56 53 52 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 13 13 11 13 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -19 -23 -27 -6 -3 20 17 -5 -15 -27 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 113 95 74 87 125 73 73 6 -14 -42 1 23 34 LAND (KM) 162 167 160 198 229 240 114 63 84 104 91 41 80 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.4 23.1 24.1 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.7 106.4 107.4 107.9 107.9 108.3 109.3 109.4 109.3 109.4 109.5 109.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 11 10 7 6 9 4 2 0 2 1 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 18. 21. 19. 16. 12. 9. 8. 6.