* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 36 33 30 27 25 24 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 38 36 33 31 31 32 35 40 DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 41 37 35 33 29 26 30 34 34 34 30 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 25 20 20 18 22 30 24 16 8 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 0 3 3 -1 1 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 42 39 27 24 13 349 344 327 322 289 120 N/A N/A SST (C) 16.0 16.0 15.6 15.2 15.1 14.4 13.1 12.1 11.2 10.9 11.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 74 74 74 73 71 68 66 66 63 61 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 70 70 69 68 65 64 63 61 58 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.0 -49.0 -48.4 -47.8 -46.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 44 48 53 60 62 70 70 70 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 27 24 22 20 19 19 20 22 24 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 192 199 199 177 163 125 141 148 142 123 228 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 26 12 28 34 41 59 63 28 -7 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1049 1284 1506 1231 957 647 880 969 1186 1318 1269 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 50.2 50.0 50.0 50.4 51.5 54.6 58.4 60.9 62.3 60.9 60.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.7 35.3 31.6 27.7 24.2 19.8 21.7 21.7 25.2 28.2 27.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 24 25 23 20 15 12 12 7 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 78/ 19 CX,CY: 19/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -21. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -34. -43. -49.