* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 56 66 75 82 89 95 100 102 105 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 56 66 75 82 89 95 100 102 105 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 46 49 55 63 70 74 78 82 87 90 V (KT) G07R 38 38 37 38 40 44 51 50 56 57 58 58 63 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 4 3 6 8 16 12 11 4 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 2 0 4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 269 276 259 253 141 123 122 123 111 128 34 168 24 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 130 130 130 130 128 127 124 125 128 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 125 122 123 120 115 114 111 113 114 115 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 52 51 49 47 46 48 45 44 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 27 27 27 30 32 34 36 38 40 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 121 128 126 116 105 83 62 48 44 30 42 46 55 200 MB DIV 56 59 42 53 76 34 48 51 59 41 35 26 64 LAND (KM) 1883 1856 1794 1807 1835 1836 1850 1870 1922 1917 1869 1785 1755 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.3 22.1 23.6 24.3 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 38.1 39.1 40.5 41.2 41.7 43.3 44.5 45.5 46.2 47.3 48.6 49.7 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 9 10 9 6 6 5 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 35. 42. 49. 55. 60. 62. 65.