* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 08/04/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 54 56 57 58 59 59 60 59 52 41 31 V (KT) LAND 45 51 54 56 57 58 59 59 60 59 52 41 31 V (KT) LGE mod 45 52 56 58 58 57 58 61 66 66 57 47 39 V (KT) G08R 32 37 39 37 36 39 36 38 47 49 50 48 45 SHEAR (KT) 21 26 26 17 11 8 2 4 16 28 40 47 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -10 -7 2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 3 1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 70 78 92 93 80 110 117 53 47 53 65 86 106 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.2 23.5 22.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 116 114 114 115 115 116 115 111 99 93 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 100 96 94 94 95 96 99 102 99 89 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -55.8 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 6 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 44 46 45 42 42 40 44 51 56 56 56 52 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 20 20 20 19 18 19 24 26 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -41 -50 -65 -60 -70 -48 -29 12 -19 -65 -92 -28 200 MB DIV 17 -12 -34 -27 -33 -35 -20 16 46 68 62 -13 3 LAND (KM) 1766 1774 1753 1701 1698 1698 1629 1487 1244 932 901 1279 1683 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.2 31.2 31.1 31.6 32.9 35.5 38.6 41.0 42.0 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.2 53.0 53.2 53.3 53.7 54.2 54.3 53.0 50.1 45.1 38.3 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 3 2 2 3 4 9 18 22 23 29 34 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 7. -4. -14.