* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 79 82 86 92 97 104 108 112 111 111 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 79 82 86 92 97 104 108 112 111 111 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 75 77 78 80 82 85 89 93 94 95 92 V (KT) G00R 38 37 39 41 44 48 50 50 59 64 68 59 60 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 8 6 8 17 7 8 6 9 8 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 6 4 -2 -3 -3 -2 2 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 64 117 122 100 104 52 184 62 81 64 72 318 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 129 129 128 131 132 133 135 137 136 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 118 116 115 117 117 116 119 120 119 117 111 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 53 56 56 57 53 51 50 47 47 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 27 27 29 31 34 36 40 42 46 46 47 850 MB ENV VOR 71 53 42 33 29 14 26 28 49 52 70 70 93 200 MB DIV 53 32 33 51 75 55 63 28 53 41 43 37 73 LAND (KM) 1701 1709 1706 1697 1717 1675 1635 1514 1423 1358 1378 1433 1551 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.3 22.3 23.6 23.7 24.2 24.7 26.0 27.7 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.7 48.3 49.0 49.2 50.2 51.0 52.2 53.5 54.5 55.2 56.1 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 7 6 7 7 5 7 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):294/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 22. 27. 34. 38. 42. 41. 41.