* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 45 45 38 31 29 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 45 45 38 31 29 26 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 40 39 37 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 35 34 33 30 30 40 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 24 21 18 13 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 333 331 323 322 325 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.2 12.9 11.9 11.4 11.2 10.5 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 67 67 66 64 63 65 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 64 64 64 61 61 63 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.0 -47.5 -47.1 -47.0 -47.2 -46.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 68 69 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 21 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 144 147 146 157 150 105 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 59 44 46 30 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 942 959 1072 1140 1186 1388 1380 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 58.3 59.4 61.0 61.7 62.3 61.6 60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.0 22.2 23.7 24.6 25.2 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 7 6 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 18 CX,CY: 0/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -11. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -3. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. -2. -9. -11. -14. -22. -32. -40.