* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL952006 09/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 34 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 29 31 32 34 36 34 33 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 24 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 26 26 22 25 21 14 11 15 17 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 36 31 28 19 21 10 6 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 -1 3 -5 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 57 68 61 75 131 108 186 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 26.4 26.6 26.5 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 117 118 116 120 123 117 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 98 97 95 101 103 95 96 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 32 33 30 24 29 27 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 56 69 67 51 46 22 10 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -35 -19 -19 -40 -24 -30 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 327 409 458 475 631 731 724 776 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 35.3 34.8 35.0 34.1 32.7 32.9 33.5 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.2 71.5 70.8 71.0 69.8 68.6 68.3 67.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 8 7 2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 83/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 14. 13. 13. 13.