* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 43 41 37 30 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 43 41 37 30 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 36 36 37 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 23 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 328 319 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.2 13.0 12.4 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 66 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 63 64 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.2 -47.8 -47.5 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 20 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 146 157 149 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 57 44 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 965 964 966 1019 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 58.1 59.0 60.4 62.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 23.6 22.7 22.0 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 18 CX,CY: 0/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -17. -17. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 15. 13. 13. 12. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -3. -10. -20. -28.