* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 101 100 101 105 109 111 110 106 102 94 87 V (KT) LAND 100 101 101 100 101 105 109 111 110 106 102 94 87 V (KT) LGE mod 100 102 101 99 97 95 96 98 98 96 89 81 71 V (KT) G01R 45 47 46 45 48 52 54 64 64 65 65 61 61 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 11 5 1 0 8 14 8 19 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -6 -6 -6 -1 3 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 161 87 114 127 64 63 39 71 67 113 32 62 49 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.0 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 135 136 135 135 137 138 138 135 125 119 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 121 121 119 119 120 120 121 118 109 104 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -51.4 -51.4 -50.3 -51.2 -50.3 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 12 12 10 8 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 53 52 48 48 46 43 47 49 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 30 30 33 36 40 43 46 44 44 43 45 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 18 22 30 28 45 46 59 78 87 62 40 200 MB DIV 44 28 41 51 22 13 23 17 19 31 67 30 24 LAND (KM) 1785 1731 1667 1648 1612 1485 1375 1292 1352 1507 1489 1269 1045 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.9 23.4 24.2 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.9 27.2 29.5 31.9 34.5 37.3 LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.7 50.6 51.1 51.7 53.2 54.7 56.2 56.7 57.2 57.0 56.0 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 9 8 7 7 7 7 10 12 12 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):331/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. 1. 5. 9. 11. 10. 6. 2. -6. -13.