* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MIRIAM EP142006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 30 28 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 38 29 25 22 19 17 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 14 12 9 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 5 6 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 250 235 229 247 11 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.8 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 131 129 121 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 52 48 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 11 10 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 6 -1 -17 -32 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 22 19 -1 -13 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 533 522 494 475 383 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.3 19.6 20.2 20.9 22.4 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.4 113.6 113.8 114.2 115.0 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 5 7 7 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -18. -26. -30. -33. -38. -40. -41.