* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 97 97 96 100 102 103 106 109 106 105 V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 97 97 96 100 102 103 106 109 106 105 V (KT) LGE mod 100 102 101 99 96 93 92 94 95 94 94 91 90 V (KT) G04R 35 36 42 43 46 49 52 60 62 68 71 67 64 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 18 11 9 11 6 11 12 9 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 2 -1 -1 -2 0 7 -2 2 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 106 106 126 128 93 109 61 58 42 4 36 52 65 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 134 134 133 135 137 138 139 142 139 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 116 121 119 117 119 122 121 122 125 119 118 115 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -50.8 -50.5 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 14 700-500 MB RH 52 55 54 53 54 51 51 46 44 43 44 47 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 28 30 32 36 39 42 46 49 49 49 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -5 -3 7 13 36 42 57 68 88 92 94 200 MB DIV 41 13 23 35 31 19 40 27 17 108 93 69 26 LAND (KM) 1686 1704 1693 1638 1602 1485 1335 1198 1174 1186 1269 1313 1355 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.6 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.7 24.5 25.9 27.4 28.3 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 49.7 50.1 50.8 51.2 52.6 54.2 55.7 56.5 57.6 58.2 58.7 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 9 7 6 6 8 6 6 8 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):331/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -35. -38. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 6. 5.