* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 100 99 99 100 106 110 111 110 109 104 100 V (KT) LAND 100 101 100 99 99 100 106 110 111 110 109 104 100 V (KT) LGE mod 100 102 101 99 96 93 94 97 98 96 91 82 74 V (KT) G05R 39 40 43 45 45 50 53 60 65 65 71 65 68 SHEAR (KT) 6 12 18 10 7 9 2 4 8 11 12 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -5 -1 2 11 0 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 112 92 125 133 77 81 109 118 54 70 41 29 40 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 135 134 137 137 140 140 139 130 121 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 121 119 117 121 120 122 122 124 114 104 100 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -52.3 -50.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 11 11 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 50 51 46 46 42 41 40 43 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 28 31 32 37 41 44 45 48 48 49 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 5 9 20 21 49 46 66 54 62 64 44 200 MB DIV 55 21 30 42 27 25 40 46 53 96 73 54 37 LAND (KM) 1706 1635 1599 1567 1546 1437 1309 1220 1246 1399 1577 1339 1209 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.8 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.6 25.2 26.3 28.4 30.9 33.3 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.6 51.1 51.7 52.0 53.3 55.0 56.5 57.2 57.5 57.2 57.2 55.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 6 5 8 7 7 8 13 13 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):331/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. 2. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 10. 11. 10. 9. 4. -0.