* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 50 42 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 50 42 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 52 51 49 46 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 33 35 39 42 45 46 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 10 6 5 2 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 7 10 12 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 305 310 304 358 58 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.5 9.7 9.3 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 64 65 66 67 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 61 61 62 64 66 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -46.4 -46.6 -46.3 -46.4 -46.1 -45.2 -46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 72 67 66 64 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 23 23 21 13 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 138 122 127 158 192 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 18 13 6 2 -37 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1179 1242 1338 1476 1424 1110 1111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 62.0 62.5 62.7 62.6 61.9 58.5 53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.2 26.2 28.0 30.7 34.2 40.7 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 15 20 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):317/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -13. -20. -26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -8. -21. -27. -32. -38. -47. -57. -65.