* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 25 25 27 30 35 41 45 47 51 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 25 25 27 30 35 41 45 47 51 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 17 17 18 19 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 25 23 24 21 16 16 19 18 20 20 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 28 21 18 14 14 14 16 14 7 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -13 -12 -11 -5 -2 -9 -4 -5 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 289 282 262 251 236 213 191 179 185 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 155 156 154 154 153 155 148 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 13 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 61 59 63 67 65 58 55 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 38 37 36 35 33 31 19 32 45 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 121 109 98 87 64 42 32 47 31 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1110 1151 1192 1234 1255 1227 1142 1026 1094 1147 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 8.8 8.3 7.8 7.6 7.9 8.8 10.8 12.2 12.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.4 153.2 153.9 155.1 155.8 156.6 157.6 160.2 163.2 165.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 10 5 5 8 25 8 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 31. 35.