* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 43 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 43 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 52 51 50 46 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 34 34 37 41 45 46 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 5 6 1 10 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 9 14 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 303 295 295 330 69 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 11.4 11.2 10.9 10.5 9.9 9.5 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 64 64 64 66 68 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 61 61 62 64 66 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -46.4 -46.6 -46.3 -46.2 -46.0 -45.4 -47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 74 72 68 69 63 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 23 23 23 23 17 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 141 144 120 134 162 161 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 18 13 7 -2 -42 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1141 1217 1303 1431 1477 1116 961 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 61.9 62.3 62.5 62.4 61.7 58.4 53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 24.5 25.7 27.3 29.8 33.2 40.6 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 14 20 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):317/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -13. -20. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -7. -24. -30. -36. -43. -51. -61. -68.