* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 39 47 57 64 70 73 76 79 82 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 39 47 57 64 70 73 76 79 82 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 38 46 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 24 22 22 21 20 16 16 19 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 4 4 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 219 207 187 163 58 81 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 149 146 146 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 57 54 54 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 17 10 0 -10 -10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 12 14 17 20 16 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1227 1312 1365 1450 1585 1715 1872 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.2 11.5 12.0 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.4 163.2 164.6 166.0 167.5 169.9 172.1 173.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 14 14 15 11 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 27. 34. 40. 43. 46. 49. 52.