* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 42 46 48 49 52 58 66 73 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 42 46 48 49 52 58 66 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 49 52 57 66 80 V (KT) G01R 26 24 21 22 18 17 17 16 14 15 14 15 14 SHEAR (KT) 13 6 4 3 4 2 2 4 5 4 4 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 0 -7 -4 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 259 253 213 194 201 19 211 284 247 336 119 35 96 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 151 150 146 145 145 149 150 153 149 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 58 55 50 51 49 48 51 53 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 34 26 13 -2 -2 2 6 17 21 31 19 200 MB DIV 5 21 14 23 30 21 18 17 9 3 -3 3 8 LAND (KM) 1162 1255 1329 1419 1468 1575 1699 1753 1903 2009 2102 2077 2095 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.8 11.3 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 161.6 163.1 164.4 165.9 167.0 169.4 171.2 171.9 173.5 174.6 175.7 175.8 176.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 9 7 5 6 4 10 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -17. -15. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 22. 28. 36. 43.