* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 59 54 50 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 59 54 50 36 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 66 61 55 50 38 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 37 31 35 35 37 27 41 39 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 38 44 47 35 38 39 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 9 17 25 37 26 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 110 91 49 12 353 351 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 22.7 21.9 21.0 20.0 14.2 12.9 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 95 91 88 76 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 91 86 83 74 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -52.3 -52.2 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 3 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 56 57 61 65 59 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 14 17 19 17 20 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -7 46 89 100 124 148 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 63 60 69 52 20 -11 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1875 1570 1044 617 431 26 524 744 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 39.3 41.1 43.0 45.7 53.9 59.0 56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.8 27.3 21.5 16.7 13.0 10.3 14.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 37 44 38 39 40 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 93/ 28 CX,CY: 28/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -30. -34. -37. -38. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -6. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -17. -19. -20. -18. -16. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -20. -34. -45. -57. -70. -77. -83. -89. -92.