* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 94 95 95 94 93 88 84 77 70 64 54 V (KT) LAND 95 94 94 95 95 94 93 88 84 77 70 64 54 V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 93 93 93 93 92 85 77 69 59 49 42 V (KT) G03R 72 65 61 56 59 53 57 57 59 61 66 77 66 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 7 10 8 12 15 21 32 44 53 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 1 -2 -4 0 4 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 91 50 27 32 43 68 32 32 21 20 23 7 3 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.3 25.8 25.2 23.3 19.4 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 141 141 139 129 119 115 111 101 83 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 126 126 125 125 115 106 101 99 93 77 72 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -52.2 -51.4 -52.1 -51.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 14 12 11 8 6 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 49 52 51 54 44 34 35 35 37 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 42 40 38 39 38 38 39 40 40 42 49 48 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 32 17 29 27 65 69 78 48 54 72 117 200 MB DIV 35 44 76 50 6 23 20 64 91 57 89 76 53 LAND (KM) 1349 1278 1235 1216 1254 1413 1516 1266 1100 985 1051 1328 1391 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.6 26.5 28.7 31.5 34.5 36.8 38.6 41.7 46.0 49.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.1 56.0 56.8 57.2 57.7 57.2 56.1 52.6 48.2 41.8 35.5 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 13 15 18 18 23 33 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -19. -27. -33. -38. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -18. -25. -31. -41.