* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 53 58 63 68 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 45 53 58 63 68 71 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 37 44 54 65 77 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 27 22 22 22 21 17 16 14 16 16 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 3 3 5 7 11 14 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 226 232 203 157 77 65 77 110 109 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 148 147 146 145 148 152 155 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 13 13 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 57 55 54 54 52 52 56 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 6 5 -5 -13 -23 -29 -26 -21 2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 3 7 6 9 18 8 -6 -22 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1082 1198 1273 1285 1337 1468 1614 1752 1987 2212 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.7 12.4 12.4 12.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.7 162.9 164.3 165.4 166.7 169.2 171.5 172.9 175.6 178.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 18 13 13 13 13 9 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 28. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47.