* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 57 55 52 43 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 57 55 52 43 34 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 45 34 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 36 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 4 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.5 19.6 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 86 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 182 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.6 44.0 47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 13.7 10.8 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 40 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 71/ 35 CX,CY: 33/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 833 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -19. -16. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -22. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -36. -45. -53. -59. -65. -68.