* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 81 80 80 76 72 66 63 59 49 40 36 V (KT) LAND 85 82 81 80 80 76 72 66 63 59 49 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 79 78 76 73 67 61 54 48 40 36 35 V (KT) G03R 57 55 54 51 55 58 67 64 72 72 68 60 59 SHEAR (KT) 8 2 3 3 9 17 25 33 47 43 44 40 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 5 0 2 2 0 1 2 14 2 7 SHEAR DIR 30 22 19 15 10 40 28 31 14 12 2 356 303 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.4 23.4 20.3 18.0 13.7 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 123 121 117 111 106 104 99 85 79 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 110 108 104 99 94 93 90 79 74 69 67 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 12 9 7 4 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 55 54 57 57 47 37 33 31 39 50 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 41 37 37 39 39 43 45 50 53 53 50 49 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 28 41 51 57 70 67 88 117 159 193 245 200 MB DIV 59 15 -6 26 45 73 71 80 132 48 62 77 118 LAND (KM) 1261 1315 1420 1540 1610 1377 1216 1122 1146 1297 1506 1305 1372 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.0 28.2 29.6 30.9 33.7 35.8 37.4 39.7 42.8 46.7 51.6 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.0 56.8 56.8 56.5 55.2 51.7 47.7 42.7 37.6 32.8 29.2 31.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 13 14 14 17 17 20 24 26 26 26 20 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):321/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. 1. 2. 5. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -26. -36. -45. -49.