* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP962006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 36 38 39 42 44 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 35 36 38 39 42 44 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 29 31 34 DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 14 15 12 12 14 13 13 11 8 10 8 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 18 19 19 19 18 17 18 20 21 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -7 -3 -1 -1 -7 -5 -9 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 276 263 265 255 258 259 284 298 310 314 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 156 156 155 156 155 153 157 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 14 13 13 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 65 64 63 56 55 51 57 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -17 -14 -5 -1 -1 -1 7 13 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 22 -2 4 10 9 -13 -18 -29 -14 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 443 477 531 531 582 557 523 531 635 704 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 14.9 14.6 14.2 14.2 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 14.3 14.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.5 105.6 105.9 105.9 106.3 106.2 106.4 107.3 107.8 109.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 2 2 1 3 2 2 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 17. 19. 23. 26.