* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP962006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 37 38 38 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 37 38 38 40 43 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 11 12 11 10 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 18 19 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -9 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 289 277 270 262 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 155 155 154 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 -5 -11 -6 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 41 8 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 429 517 540 594 585 556 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.4 14.5 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.7 106.8 107.2 107.2 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 15. 18. 20.