* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 54 51 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 54 51 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 57 46 45 34 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 53 38 38 32 33 46 38 33 25 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 32 29 40 36 35 14 43 55 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 24 30 32 31 11 15 18 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 358 346 343 343 196 146 133 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.8 19.3 17.9 8.3 13.9 13.6 14.4 16.5 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 84 82 72 74 69 70 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 79 78 71 71 66 67 70 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.4 -52.3 -51.1 -50.5 -48.8 -48.1 -48.1 -49.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 62 66 69 49 50 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 20 20 22 29 25 19 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 130 145 160 175 190 181 185 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 75 51 28 4 -38 -57 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 259 352 14 323 685 667 493 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.1 44.8 48.0 52.4 56.3 55.8 52.6 49.5 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 13.2 11.2 9.5 9.7 13.1 20.2 20.1 16.0 9.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 32 38 43 32 17 18 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 71/ 35 CX,CY: 33/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -24. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 0. -4. -5. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -19. -20. -18. -16. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -19. -22. -22. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -9. -15. -30. -49. -63. -73. -81. -89. -94.