* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 09/21/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 81 81 76 67 59 57 52 45 37 30 V (KT) LAND 85 83 82 81 81 76 67 59 57 52 45 37 30 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 79 78 77 73 68 61 55 48 42 40 39 V (KT) G07R 70 59 55 54 55 58 48 55 70 66 64 54 50 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 5 6 10 15 24 31 42 30 23 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 2 4 -2 -3 1 -1 2 5 -4 5 6 SHEAR DIR 16 26 24 8 357 69 52 33 23 55 51 97 133 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.5 25.6 24.9 24.6 24.1 22.7 21.1 20.0 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 126 125 120 112 106 104 102 94 87 84 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 114 111 105 100 92 91 92 84 79 77 75 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -53.9 -54.1 -56.1 -57.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 13 12 12 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 53 53 43 34 36 35 43 46 48 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 42 39 37 39 37 35 35 42 43 42 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 40 41 31 49 66 39 44 41 60 77 79 88 82 200 MB DIV 58 33 -4 38 33 58 57 74 119 38 36 40 10 LAND (KM) 1225 1282 1387 1513 1530 1353 1233 1147 1127 1220 1483 1661 1169 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.1 28.4 30.0 31.2 33.7 35.6 36.6 38.1 40.2 41.6 43.4 44.7 LONG(DEG W) 57.5 57.6 57.7 58.0 57.7 56.0 53.1 50.2 45.7 40.8 35.8 29.6 23.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 15 14 12 17 14 15 22 21 22 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):321/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -25. -30. -36. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -9. -18. -26. -28. -33. -40. -48. -55.