* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 46 57 69 75 78 84 88 93 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 46 57 69 75 78 84 88 93 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 25 27 34 44 56 69 79 86 94 DIS V (KT) G00R 25 27 26 26 25 22 21 21 19 17 19 14 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 9 10 10 12 9 10 2 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -1 0 -6 -1 -4 -1 -2 -9 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 83 75 76 91 112 85 132 135 169 182 165 110 N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 163 164 157 159 160 159 159 159 161 162 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 54 54 54 58 59 62 64 68 67 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 18 27 33 42 51 56 57 57 54 53 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 26 24 9 23 22 14 12 14 9 19 26 N/A LAND (KM) 2029 2170 2328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.7 12.4 12.2 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.5 11.4 12.1 11.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.4 177.8 179.3 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 1743 1744 14 14 15 12 12 10 11 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):259/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 40. 46. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 26. 37. 49. 55. 58. 64. 68. 73.