* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HELENE AL092006 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 64 61 56 55 49 36 27 21 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 64 61 56 55 49 36 27 21 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 66 63 59 55 51 47 46 46 46 47 V (KT) G04R 61 61 52 52 52 52 57 55 49 37 32 30 22 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 22 22 18 27 21 22 33 34 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 2 20 12 3 9 10 SHEAR DIR 28 15 39 46 36 81 65 81 163 168 175 175 170 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.0 24.7 24.5 23.9 22.0 20.4 20.7 21.8 22.6 23.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 108 108 107 105 104 101 91 81 85 88 91 96 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 95 92 92 90 83 73 77 79 81 84 86 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.8 -55.7 -56.1 -56.8 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 35 37 38 39 36 41 49 49 45 43 38 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 42 40 38 37 39 37 42 43 34 28 23 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 55 66 73 93 126 127 148 120 98 115 118 200 MB DIV 108 45 62 64 50 42 38 3 -78 -46 -24 -35 -28 LAND (KM) 1245 1269 1261 1193 1221 1373 1579 1732 1568 1292 1078 1022 789 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 35.4 35.8 36.9 37.4 38.3 40.8 43.4 42.0 39.9 37.8 35.2 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 50.8 48.8 47.2 45.2 40.7 35.2 31.3 28.2 24.2 21.5 20.1 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 17 17 20 23 13 20 16 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -27. -32. -36. -38. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -0. 0. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -19. -20. -26. -39. -48. -54. -58. -61.