* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 09/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 53 56 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 46 50 53 56 56 57 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 43 46 49 51 52 V (KT) G04R 28 31 32 30 27 25 22 22 21 20 17 15 14 SHEAR (KT) 2 10 18 20 18 24 24 24 27 24 31 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 5 0 -1 0 0 0 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 353 42 52 47 39 33 29 38 44 62 54 70 63 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 132 130 128 127 126 127 128 128 127 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 123 117 114 109 113 116 116 110 111 106 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 75 72 66 63 58 48 43 40 35 37 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 15 14 14 12 11 10 8 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 49 39 29 20 14 9 9 13 24 6 1 -25 -26 200 MB DIV 67 77 61 68 72 25 1 -14 17 7 6 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1833 1928 1986 2001 2009 2132 2239 2173 2138 2006 1912 1837 1880 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 16.7 18.2 19.4 20.0 21.4 22.6 22.5 22.9 23.9 24.9 26.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.2 40.2 41.5 42.2 42.2 42.3 43.5 45.1 47.2 48.6 49.8 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 13 8 6 3 6 10 11 6 7 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):343/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 31. 32. 32. 33.