* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 34 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 34 31 29 26 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 41 54 69 72 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 13 12 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 142 135 134 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 13.9 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 70 70 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 66 67 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.2 -49.0 -49.4 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 47 50 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 16 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 135 154 180 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -84 -70 -34 -18 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 724 728 692 668 748 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 54.5 52.8 51.1 49.9 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 21.1 21.0 20.2 19.2 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):203/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 9. 12. 12. 7. -5. -15. -22. -26. -31. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -13. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -20. -32. -48. -68. -83. -94.-101.-107.-115.