* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWO CP022006 09/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 45 57 71 77 82 85 90 92 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 33 45 57 71 77 82 85 90 92 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 33 43 55 69 79 86 90 97 V (KT) G09R 28 22 22 22 21 19 18 19 15 15 13 15 14 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 8 6 6 6 5 9 10 13 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -3 0 -6 -1 -3 -1 -2 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 86 18 30 60 100 64 101 119 171 158 166 131 148 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 155 165 165 158 158 159 156 159 157 158 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 700-500 MB RH 59 54 55 56 54 60 58 63 61 62 61 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 21 29 32 45 44 55 50 50 47 49 44 200 MB DIV 20 32 33 22 17 21 17 8 12 16 11 9 -12 LAND (KM) 2011 2154 2280 2424 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 12.5 12.1 11.7 11.8 11.3 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.8 11.0 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 176.4 177.5 178.6 179.9 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 1750 1751 11 8 9 5 8 6 8 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):259/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 40. 45. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 25. 37. 51. 57. 62. 65. 70. 72.