* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP962006 09/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 39 45 48 52 56 61 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 34 39 45 48 52 56 61 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 22 24 26 28 31 34 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 27 17 17 15 17 13 18 20 18 13 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 8 13 11 8 8 12 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -5 -8 -8 -7 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 317 308 299 291 302 329 356 357 14 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 155 157 155 156 151 149 145 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 18 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 59 60 67 60 61 60 60 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 62 63 52 60 68 60 51 43 38 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 58 16 12 22 24 5 -25 2 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 408 449 522 613 723 1017 1125 1296 1543 1739 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.1 15.8 15.6 15.2 13.4 14.0 14.2 13.4 13.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.5 108.2 109.2 110.2 112.2 115.1 118.2 120.7 123.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 14 8 16 14 14 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):339/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 42. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 19. 25. 28. 32. 36. 41. 45.