* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP962006 09/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 55 61 64 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 39 48 55 61 64 65 68 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 20 18 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 65 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -18 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 86 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1560 1460 1323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.1 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.3 146.5 147.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 37. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 35. 41. 44. 45. 48. 50.