* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL972006 09/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 39 50 63 71 79 89 99 106 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 39 50 63 71 79 89 99 106 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 31 23 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 18 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 166 164 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 44 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -32 -35 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 27 11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 791 597 430 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 17.6 17.2 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 60.1 61.7 63.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 935 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 12. 22. 29. 35. 40. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 19. 30. 43. 51. 59. 69. 79. 86.