* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP962006 09/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 48 53 56 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 41 48 53 56 58 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 18 15 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 296 91 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 3 -7 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 56 33 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1553 1445 1380 1248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.4 146.6 147.6 149.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 32. 37. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 33. 36. 38. 41. 43.