* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 09/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 69 70 69 69 70 64 51 35 22 17 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 69 70 69 69 70 64 51 35 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 70 72 72 71 68 61 47 38 32 28 25 V (KT) G06R 28 32 32 36 31 30 30 39 38 36 31 37 39 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 9 13 24 40 44 56 61 65 58 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -4 0 0 -2 11 3 5 9 9 2 SHEAR DIR 275 51 92 97 88 77 59 44 55 76 90 78 72 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.3 19.3 12.8 12.2 14.7 16.2 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 118 118 118 117 112 83 69 69 72 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 100 100 100 103 101 78 67 67 69 66 68 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -56.3 -56.9 -57.3 -56.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 53 56 61 64 68 63 57 52 50 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 11 12 21 25 24 21 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR -102 -106 -87 -74 -67 -58 -15 27 10 10 -6 3 30 200 MB DIV 17 16 26 34 20 59 95 120 77 38 18 30 59 LAND (KM) 1562 1545 1543 1448 1387 1161 771 383 104 264 761 1114 1432 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.4 31.8 33.5 37.3 42.3 45.9 47.1 48.2 48.9 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.6 58.1 58.7 59.3 60.0 61.6 61.3 58.6 54.5 49.3 42.6 37.7 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 8 8 14 23 28 19 21 22 12 19 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):304/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. 4. 8. 7. 4. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 4. -9. -25. -38. -43.