* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 09/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 65 66 66 62 63 62 47 33 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 64 65 66 66 62 63 62 45 31 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 66 70 71 70 68 64 53 35 31 27 25 24 V (KT) G07R 38 33 35 32 32 28 31 37 30 31 29 31 27 SHEAR (KT) 8 21 23 21 25 33 54 61 67 67 59 59 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 -4 -2 0 10 10 8 4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 71 72 102 104 92 69 38 37 60 73 84 90 93 SST (C) 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.1 25.3 13.3 10.4 12.6 12.6 12.4 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 124 125 125 118 116 72 69 70 71 69 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 107 108 108 106 111 70 67 68 69 67 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.8 -56.1 -56.6 -55.3 -53.7 -52.1 -51.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 44 44 49 54 59 61 67 60 53 50 47 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 12 13 12 8 12 22 18 17 17 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -121 -117 -100 -78 -64 -38 43 38 10 17 45 59 71 200 MB DIV 13 24 30 45 35 79 115 126 56 33 40 12 16 LAND (KM) 1491 1457 1438 1457 1400 1071 514 115 6 483 1040 1413 923 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.7 31.3 33.6 39.2 45.3 48.4 50.4 51.9 53.0 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.7 59.7 60.7 61.5 63.7 63.2 58.7 53.2 46.8 39.2 31.2 24.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 19 37 28 24 23 26 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):304/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. 4. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. 3. 2. -13. -27. -38. -49. -61.