* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 10/01/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 65 63 56 50 45 38 34 29 25 20 V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 65 63 56 50 45 38 34 29 25 20 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 67 65 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 30 29 32 33 35 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 27 32 39 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -10 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 83 71 58 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.7 24.2 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 116 117 105 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 103 108 97 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 59 62 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 10 9 9 13 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -98 -80 -34 14 30 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 59 72 95 116 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1284 1162 1012 758 438 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.4 34.6 36.9 40.2 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 62.0 63.0 63.2 62.6 59.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 18 28 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):319/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -7. -14. -20. -25. -32. -36. -41. -45. -50.