* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 10/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 57 54 49 44 36 30 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 57 54 49 44 36 30 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 50 40 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 35 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.5 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 100 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.4 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 73 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 75 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 759 567 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 40.0 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 60.2 58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 11/ 19 CX,CY: 4/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -16. -21. -29. -35. -40. -46. -52. -58.