* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 10/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 54 49 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 54 43 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 58 51 44 34 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 39 39 41 39 36 36 32 25 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 30 41 42 45 53 60 51 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 8 15 15 13 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 53 53 51 60 68 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.0 16.6 12.5 10.6 11.6 11.9 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 104 78 72 70 65 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 95 74 70 68 63 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.9 -55.3 -54.9 -54.5 -50.5 -49.2 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 65 68 69 62 49 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 21 22 21 17 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 37 78 89 65 58 90 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 68 66 122 118 45 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 796 589 350 75 -1 425 461 705 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 40.2 43.3 46.2 48.5 51.6 51.9 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 58.7 57.6 55.8 53.2 48.7 48.3 44.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 28 32 30 27 10 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 11/ 19 CX,CY: 4/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -11. -19. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. -37. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -16. -31. -46. -60. -71. -79. -87. -95.-104.