* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISAAC AL102006 10/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 56 51 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 56 51 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 58 52 46 35 27 21 17 16 17 23 DIS V (KT) G10R 45 50 50 49 43 41 32 32 33 41 38 36 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 36 31 39 50 59 63 63 51 29 19 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 12 13 12 12 11 4 3 6 1 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 46 58 44 50 64 77 94 100 92 87 71 113 N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 19.0 13.3 12.4 13.8 11.7 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.6 14.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 83 74 72 73 73 72 70 67 68 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 99 78 71 70 70 71 70 67 64 64 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -55.2 -54.8 -54.6 -51.5 -49.6 -49.9 -49.9 -49.4 -49.0 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 59 62 66 66 54 52 50 48 49 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 25 25 24 24 19 18 22 25 24 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 23 81 85 55 -7 63 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 80 83 138 93 41 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 870 663 458 170 75 659 1327 934 513 280 110 128 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.2 39.6 42.4 45.3 47.8 51.4 53.3 55.4 56.9 58.3 58.5 57.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.3 58.3 57.0 54.6 51.7 44.7 35.5 24.2 16.2 10.6 7.2 -0.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 32 33 32 27 36 28 20 11 13 27 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 11/ 19 CX,CY: 4/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -23. -28. -32. -35. -36. -37. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -14. -13. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -4. -1. 0. -1. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -42. -56. -64. -67. -74. -94.-103.