* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OLIVIA EP162006 10/06/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 52 57 62 64 66 66 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 52 57 62 64 66 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 24 28 32 36 40 44 49 53 V (KT) G01R 38 24 20 21 23 27 25 24 26 25 25 26 26 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 4 6 13 9 8 6 9 10 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 0 0 -1 6 5 1 -3 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 219 307 19 64 68 85 95 129 353 349 4 64 46 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 141 140 140 141 142 142 142 141 141 138 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 81 77 75 75 76 74 69 65 66 63 65 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 13 14 15 16 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 23 28 20 20 21 13 25 33 21 9 9 200 MB DIV 181 174 120 77 43 34 23 22 36 48 61 56 13 LAND (KM) 1929 1882 1961 2088 2052 2081 2199 2314 2348 2405 2404 2347 2291 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.9 11.1 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.2 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.5 124.0 125.1 125.2 126.5 128.4 129.7 130.3 131.2 131.3 131.3 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 6 6 9 9 4 4 3 2 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 32. 37. 42. 44. 46. 46. 47.