* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL992006 10/06/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 30 35 39 44 41 31 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 24 30 35 39 44 41 31 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 34 24 24 23 25 25 29 26 22 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 34 42 43 46 54 56 61 47 48 29 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -7 -2 4 -1 -1 -4 -6 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 14 24 21 24 29 39 42 37 40 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.4 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 130 119 110 108 104 103 109 116 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 115 105 96 94 84 82 88 99 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -55.8 -56.8 -57.4 -57.8 -58.5 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 56 57 55 41 37 38 45 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -1 54 94 104 87 6 -20 -45 -41 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 64 91 101 57 56 41 18 25 29 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 894 815 759 684 684 728 711 711 664 598 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.2 30.3 31.7 33.0 35.0 35.8 35.8 36.0 36.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.8 70.3 70.0 69.1 67.8 67.2 67.2 67.7 67.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 12 13 0 0 3 13 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 9. 11. 12. 4. -9. -20. -27. -29. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 20. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 24. 21. 11. 2. -3. -6. -10. -15.